Saturday Primer: Pac-12

Pac-12 conference play gets into full swing today. Well, really, it went into full swing last night with a thrilling, narrow victory by Utah. It was as close as Vegas expected (Utah a five point favorite), and very nearly an upset. Will there be any potential upsets Saturday?

Utah 30 - Arizona 24

If not for a contested fumble by Brandon Dawkins, we might be leading off the morning edge here with the first upset of the week. What it seems to show, though, is that Arizona, despite having its recruiting class picked over by Oregon and some other teams, is not the same dumpster fire it was a season ago. Could that change if Dawkins goes down? I think that would be true of just about any Pac-12 team. No conference is as dependent on starting QB's as the Pac-12.

I like what I am seeing from Arizona early and thought they were very gritty last night.

Oregon @ Arizona State

The Ducks opened as big favorites on the road and maintained that spread. But what to make of this match-up? Arizona State, whose defense has been bad for several years, still has an explosive offense with a lot of weapons. I think Oregon should win going away, but it could get dicey if the defense finds themselves on the field too much. Remember 2015? It was an exciting game, but one which I am sure Duck fans do not wish to relive in 2017.

I picked the Ducks 56-28; but could see it more close; like the 49-42 range.



Washington @ Colorado 

Another game where the visiting team is a heavy (-11.5) favorite. Washington is the consensus pick to win the Pac-12 North; following USC's close calls against Western Michigan and Texas, some even think that Washington is a good bet to return to the College Football Playoffs. I know Duck fans want me to  excoriate them - call them over rated; but I am not yet ready to do so. As long as teams keep kicking the ball to Dante Pettis, it probably does not matter how good Jake Browning is. I would still take several QB's above him, but that team is well constructed and could take advantage of a weak North division this year.

But, Washington fans should keep their eye on Eugene because the dominance the Huskies were hoping to exert for a decade of their own is probably implausible.

I have Washington here, closer than expected 34-27

UCLA @ Stanford

This one will definitely expose which is a team that will be out of contention. Yes, it seems very early in the season to pronounce any team as out of contention, but Stanford already has a conference loss, a second conference loss will make their road much more difficult. UCLA might be the most enigmatic 2-1 team in the nation. Plenty of offense, but the loss to Memphis was alarming. The Bruins have not really stopped anyone - not even Hawaii - and have found themselves digging out of a hole too often.

I like Stanford to slow down Rosen, but don't think that they can stop him. This is my own little 'upset watch' with a pick of UCLA 31-21. I just don't have a lot of faith in Keller Chryst.

USC @ California

The week of heavy road favorites sees the Trojans traveling to Cal as 17 point favorites. I like Sam Darnold a lot more than I like Ross Bowers. I like the combo of Stephen Carr and Ronald Jones a lot more than I like the combo of Patrick Laird and Vic Enwere. I also like the USC defense more than I like the Cal defense.

I do think that the staff at Cal is one that will need to be reckoned with over the next few years, but they are not there yet. I do think that they cover the spread.

USC 28-17

Nevada at Washington State

When Luke Falk went down against Boise State, the Cougars showed that Tyler Hilinski not just a placeholder, but a capable backup who can do some things. He probably won't be needed until mop up time. The Cougar defense is better than it has been in a long, long time. I really like the way they play on defense. This one should get ugly early.

WSU 63-21